India forecasts 6.8%–7.2% growth for next fiscal year

India’s economy is projected to grow between 6.8% and 7.2% in the fiscal year beginning in April, the government said on Thursday.

The forecast, outlined in the annual economic survey, marks a slowdown from the 7.4% growth projection for the current fiscal year.

The survey, presented in parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, said the domestic economy remains on a stable footing. However, it warned that slower growth among trading partners and tariff-induced disruptions to global trade could weigh on exports and investor sentiment.

The government has projected growth of 7.4% for the current fiscal year, higher than the 6.3%–6.8% range forecast in last year’s survey.

The report on the state of the economy, authored by Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran and his team at the finance ministry, said investment and consumption are likely to gain strength as firms respond to recent reforms.

The survey serves as a precursor to the federal budget scheduled for Sunday. The budget is expected to focus on sustaining strong economic growth while cushioning the South Asian nation from geopolitical shocks and tariff policy uncertainty from Washington that has disrupted global trade.

Despite robust growth and low inflation, foreign investors have continued to sell Indian equities following a record outflow in 2025, citing stretched valuations, subdued earnings and geopolitical concerns.

US President Donald Trump imposed a 50% tariff on some Indian goods entering the United States in August.

India and the European Union reached a long-delayed trade agreement on Tuesday that will slash tariffs on most goods, with the aim of boosting two-way trade and reducing reliance on the United States. In recent months, New Delhi has also finalised trade pacts with Britain, New Zealand and Oman.