Why India is likely to receive below-average monsoon rainfall in 2026

India is expected to receive below-average rainfall during the 2026 southwest monsoon season, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting rainfall at 90 per cent of the long-period average.

The weather office said on Friday that while the Northeast is likely to receive normal rainfall, the remaining parts of the country may experience below-normal rainfall during the four-month monsoon season from June to September.

The main reason behind the weaker rainfall outlook is the expected development of El Nino conditions, which are likely to influence weather patterns during the monsoon season.

M Ravichandran, a secretary in the earth sciences ministry, said the monsoon is expected to reach 90 per cent of the long-period average this year. He added that an El Nino weather effect is likely to develop soon and influence rainfall during the four-month monsoon season.

The IMD defines normal rainfall as between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) during the June-September period. At 90 per cent of the long-period average, the forecast falls below the normal range.

The South Asian nation is also expected to receive below-average rainfall in June, with precipitation forecast at less than 92 per cent of the long-period average, according to Ravichandran.

El Nino occurs when ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean rise above normal levels. The phenomenon can affect weather systems across the world and typically brings hot and dry conditions to Southeast Asia and several other regions.

India has received below-average rainfall during most previous El Nino years. In some cases, weaker monsoon seasons have resulted in severe droughts that damaged crops and led to restrictions on grain exports.

The monsoon is a key driver of India’s nearly $4-trillion economy, which is the third largest in Asia. It provides almost 70 per cent of the rainfall needed to irrigate farms and replenish aquifers and reservoirs across the country.

India said on Friday that monsoon rains, hindered by an El Nino, are likely to fall below average in 2026 for the first time in three years, raising concerns over farm output and economic growth as the country battles inflation caused by the Iran war.

With the monsoon remaining critical for agriculture, water resources and rural incomes, the development of El Nino conditions will be closely watched in the coming months as the rainy season progresses.