India’s economy to grow 6.7% this fiscal, Reuters poll shows

India’s economy is expected to grow 6.7% this fiscal year, slightly faster than earlier estimates, according to a Reuters poll of economists conducted between October 15 and 24.

The upgraded forecast follows a stronger-than-expected 7.8% GDP expansion in the April-June quarter and recent Goods and Services Tax (GST) cuts introduced to boost consumer spending during the festive season.

The Reserve Bank of India recently signalled that easing inflation has provided room to support growth. The poll projected inflation averaging 2.5% this fiscal before rising to 4.2% next year. Economists expect interest rates to remain unchanged through the first half of 2027 after a possible rate cut in December.

“The monetary and fiscal policy support for growth, and the performance of the rural economy have led to our assessment of slightly revising up our GDP growth numbers for the year,” said Sakshi Gupta, principal economist at HDFC Bank.

Nearly all respondents said the economy was more likely to grow faster than slower over the next year. The poll predicted GDP growth of 6.5% for both the next fiscal year and the following one.

Abhishek Upadhyay, senior economist at ICICI Securities PD, said, “The big headwind … really was the higher tariffs imposed by the U.S., which were seen as offsetting the benefit from GST. But if that headwind cools then growth in the second half of the year could even be stronger than we currently expect.”

Private investment concerns persist

Economists noted that while the recent tax cuts may support demand, uncertainty around global trade and policy shifts could continue to weigh on private investment — a key driver of job creation.

“Whenever there is uncertainty, the worst-affected segment in the entire GDP spectrum is investment, and it’s happening. So once uncertainty fades away, we may see even private investment come back,” said Kanika Pasricha, chief economic adviser at Union Bank of India.

She added that the impact of the GST reform on demand may be delayed as global uncertainty continues to slow capital expenditure recovery.