Good rains forecast for south and central India; northwest to lag in January–March period

Southern and central India are expected to receive good rainfall from January to March, while the northwest region, including Punjab and Haryana, is likely to see below-normal showers, the weather office said on Thursday.

However, the mixed rainfall forecast is unlikely to affect the rabi crop, as northwestern parts of the country are well irrigated and reservoirs are full following good monsoon rains, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), told a press conference here.

He said the northeast, parts of Bihar and Vidarbha will experience one to three additional cold days, while Rajasthan is expected to see fewer cold days. Monthly minimum temperatures in January are likely to remain below normal across most regions of the country, he added. However, some parts of northwest and northeast India, as well as peninsular India, may record above-normal temperatures.

Mohapatra attributed the virtually dry December to the absence of western disturbances, which usually bring rain and thunderstorms to northwestern and central India. “The western disturbances are either moving towards north or moving too fast,” he said, linking the change in pattern to climate change.

He noted that lower snow cover during the December to March period is one of the indicators of good rainfall during the southwest monsoon season.

Mohapatra said La Nina conditions — the cooling of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific — are currently prevailing, and global forecasting models indicate a shift to ENSO-neutral conditions by March. “The ENSO neutral conditions are likely to remain dominant till June-July,” he said, adding that this is an indicator of good monsoon rainfall.

On temperature trends, Mohapatra said 2025 was the eighth-warmest year since 1901, with the all-India annual mean land surface air temperature at 0.28 degree Celsius above the 1991–2020 long-term average. The warmest year on record remains 2024, when temperatures across India were 0.65 degree Celsius above the long-term average.

He added that all-India seasonal mean temperatures were above the long-term average during the winter (January–February) and pre-monsoon (March–May) seasons, with anomalies of 1.17 degrees Celsius and 0.29 degree Celsius, respectively. During the southwest monsoon (June–September) and post-monsoon (October–December) seasons, seasonal mean temperatures were close to the long-term average, with anomalies of 0.09 degree Celsius and minus 0.1 degree Celsius, respectively.

(With inputs from agencies)