Rain before harvest to pull India’s 2026 wheat output below estimate

India’s wheat output in 2026 is expected to fall below the government’s record production estimate after untimely rain and hailstorms damaged crops ahead of harvest, according to trade officials.

Traders and industry officials said output could decline by 5% to 10% from 2025 levels, despite the government forecasting higher production this year.

Although lower production could affect procurement by government agencies, traders said there is little risk of shortages as India’s wheat stocks remain well above required levels.

“The wheat crop was in good shape, but untimely rain just before harvest is likely to cut output from last year’s level,” Nitin Gupta, deputy country head at Olam Agri India, told Reuters.

More than 80% of India’s wheat production comes from Madhya Pradesh and the northern states of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan. These regions received above-average rainfall during the March to mid-April harvest period.

The government has projected record wheat production of 120.21 million metric tons for the year.

However, Gupta and three other dealers said they expect 2026 output to decline by about 5% from last year’s record 117.9 million tons. Other traders estimated the fall could be closer to 10%, reducing output to around 106.1 million tons, which would be the lowest level in seven years.

The dealers declined to be identified due to company policies.

Despite concerns over production, traders said domestic supplies are expected to remain sufficient after a strong 2025 harvest boosted inventories and helped keep prices under control.

India’s wheat stocks in government warehouses stood at 21.8 million tons at the start of April, up 85% from a year earlier. The stock level is the highest in five years and nearly three times the government’s target.

“The government is holding far more wheat than required, allowing it to increase export allocations, while traders remain concerned about production,” said Sumit Gupta, CEO of Waseda Global, a commodities brokerage.

Earlier this week, India approved an additional 2.5 million tons of wheat exports, taking the total export quota to 5 million tons.

Government agencies are aiming to procure 30.3 million tons of wheat this year, but initial purchases have been slower than expected, prompting New Delhi to relax quality specifications.

State agencies purchase wheat from farmers to support the government’s food welfare programme, one of the largest in the world.

A New Delhi-based dealer at a global trading house said government procurement could eventually reach between 26 million and 28 million tons.

(With inputs from Reuters)