India’s fertility rate falls below replacement level; what the data shows and why Elon Musk is talking about it

India’s fertility rate has fallen below the replacement level, a demographic milestone that has drawn attention from billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk and population experts alike.

On Saturday, the SpaceX CEO commented on India’s declining fertility trend after data shared on social media highlighted the country’s falling birth numbers.

“India’s birth rate has fallen below replacement. Among those most educated, India’s birth rate fell below replacement many years ago,” Musk said in a post on X.

Musk was quoting data shared by media outlet AF Post, which said India’s fertility rate had fallen below replacement level for the first time in the country’s history.

India’s birth rate has fallen below replacement.

Among those most educated, India’s birth rate fell below replacement many years ago. https://t.co/RsWf0PK6wx

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 6, 2026

According to AF Post, India’s fertility rate declined from a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.3 to 1.9 in a decade. The post also stated that Delhi’s fertility rate now stands at 1.2, lower than Finland’s.

AF Post cited a June 4 article published by The Economist titled “India’s population will soon be falling-probably quite fast.”

What is happening to India’s fertility rate?

India’s fertility rate has been steadily declining for years and has now moved below the replacement threshold.

The 2024 Sample Registration System (SRS) report showed India’s Total Fertility Rate declining from 2.1 to 1.9 children per woman.

The same trend was highlighted in the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) 2025 State of World Population (SOWP) Report, which estimated India’s total fertility rate at 1.9 births per woman.

According to the report, the figure is below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman.

The replacement level is considered the number of children needed per woman for a population to replace itself from one generation to the next without migration.

What does replacement-level fertility mean?

Demographers consider a Total Fertility Rate of 2.1 children per woman as the replacement level.

When fertility remains below this level for an extended period, population growth gradually slows and can eventually become negative.

Experts say sustained low fertility can contribute to an ageing population, a shrinking workforce and increased pressure on pension, healthcare and social welfare systems.

The latest data indicates that most Indian states have moved below the replacement-level benchmark.

According to the SRS report, only six states continue to record fertility rates above replacement level:

• Bihar
• Uttar Pradesh
• Madhya Pradesh
• Rajasthan
• Chhattisgarh
• Jharkhand

India’s population remains the world’s largest

Despite the decline in fertility, India remains the world’s most populous country.

India’s current population is over 1.46 billion and the country surpassed China in 2023 to become the world’s most populous nation.

The UNFPA says India is now entering a new phase of demographic transition marked by smaller families, lower fertility levels and slower population growth.

“Although its fertility rate has declined over the years, India has a population of well over a billion, and wide inequalities persist, despite significant improvements in health and education. Maternal mortality and gender discrimination remain high. Early marriage and pregnancy contribute to excessive maternal death among women under the age of 24,” according to information on the UNFPA website.

Birth rate and fertility rate are not the same

The terms birth rate and fertility rate are often used interchangeably, but they measure different aspects of population change.

Birth rate refers to the number of live births per 1,000 people in a population during a given year.

Total Fertility Rate refers to the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her lifetime.

The two measures are closely linked. A sustained decline in fertility rates generally leads to lower birth rates over time, which can slow population growth and contribute to an ageing society.

Why Elon Musk’s comments are attracting attention

Musk has frequently commented on declining fertility rates across countries and has repeatedly argued that falling birth rates could become a major long-term challenge for many societies.

His latest remarks came after the release and discussion of data showing that India’s fertility rate has fallen below replacement level.

“India’s birth rate has fallen below replacement. Among those most educated, India’s birth rate fell below replacement many years ago,” Musk wrote on X.

His comments have renewed attention on India’s changing demographic profile as the country balances a population of more than 1.46 billion with steadily declining fertility levels.

The latest figures suggest that while India’s population remains large, the pace of future population growth is slowing as the country moves further into its demographic transition.