Exit polls project BJP surge in Assam, close fight in Bengal; DMK and UDF ahead in south

Several exit polls released on Wednesday projected a major victory for the BJP in Assam and suggested an advantage for the party over the ruling TMC in West Bengal, while forecasting a return of the DMK government in Tamil Nadu and a comeback for the Congress-led UDF in Kerala after 10 years.

The surveys also predicted that the AINRC-led NDA government would return to power in Puducherry.

In Assam, multiple exit polls forecast a strong performance for the BJP-led NDA in the 126-member Assembly, where the majority mark is 64.

Axis My India projected 88-100 seats for the BJP and its allies, while the Congress and its partners were predicted to secure 24-36 seats.

People’s Pulse estimated that the NDA would win 68-72 seats, with the Congress alliance expected to get 22-26 seats.

Matrize predicted 85-95 seats for the NDA and 25-32 seats for the Congress and its allies.

In Kerala, where the Assembly has 140 seats and the majority mark stands at 71, exit polls indicated an advantage for the Congress-led UDF.

Axis My India projected 78-90 seats for the UDF, 49-62 for the LDF and 0-3 for the NDA.

People’s Pulse forecast 75-85 seats for the UDF, 55-65 for the LDF and 0-3 for the NDA.

Matrize predicted 70-75 seats for the UDF, 60-65 for the LDF and 3-5 for the NDA.

In West Bengal, the battle appeared closer across surveys in the 294-seat Assembly, where 148 seats are needed for a majority.

People’s Pulse projected 177-187 seats for the TMC, 95-110 for the BJP, 0-1 for the Left Front and 1-3 for the Congress.

Matrize, however, projected an advantage for the BJP, estimating 146-161 seats for the party and 125-140 for the TMC.

P-Marq also predicted gains for the BJP, projecting 150-175 seats for the party and 118-138 for the TMC.

In Tamil Nadu, exit polls suggested that the DMK-led alliance is likely to retain power in the 234-member Assembly, where the majority mark is 118.

People’s Pulse projected 125-145 seats for the DMK-led alliance, 65-80 for the AIADMK-BJP alliance and 18-24 for TVK.

Matrize forecast 122-132 seats for the DMK-Congress alliance, 87-100 for the NDA and 10-12 for TVK.

In Puducherry, Axis My India predicted 16-20 seats for the NDA, 6-8 for the DMK-Congress alliance and 2-4 seats for TVK in the 30-member Assembly.

The counting of votes for the Assembly elections in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala and Assam will take place on May 4.

Polling in Assam, Kerala, Puducherry and Tamil Nadu was conducted in a single phase, while West Bengal voted in two phases on April 23 and 29.

Assam, Kerala and Puducherry went to polls on April 9. Assam recorded a voter turnout of 85.38 per cent, while Puducherry registered 89.83 per cent participation, both the highest-ever turnout figures for Assembly elections in the two regions.

Tamil Nadu voted on April 23 alongside the first phase of polling in West Bengal. The state recorded 84.69 per cent voter turnout, its highest-ever turnout in Assembly elections since Independence.

West Bengal recorded 91.78 per cent voter turnout in the first phase of polling.

The BJP is seeking to retain power in Assam and Puducherry, where it is part of an alliance government with the All India N R Congress. The Congress is attempting to regain power in both regions.

In Kerala, the Congress-led UDF is aiming to replace the ruling LDF government. In Tamil Nadu, the DMK-led alliance is seeking another term while facing challenges from the AIADMK-BJP alliance and Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, led by actor-turned-politician Vijay.

In West Bengal, the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC is attempting to retain power against the BJP challenge.

Most exit polls have had a mixed record in previous elections and have often differed from the final results.