Putin lands in Delhi on December 4 with energy and defence high on agenda: GTRI

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India this week will focus on securing energy supplies, stabilising defence deliveries and keeping bilateral trade running smoothly despite strong Western sanctions, the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said on Tuesday.

Putin will arrive in New Delhi on December 4 for the 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit.

“It is a high-stakes working visit shaped by necessity to lock in energy security, stabilise defence supply lines and keep bilateral trade functioning under the weight of Western sanctions,” GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava said.

India’s current engagement with Russia rests on three pillars — energy, defence and diplomacy, he said.

Russia is now India’s largest crude oil supplier, accounting for 30-35 per cent of total oil imports. Srivastava said discounted Russian crude has become the foundation of the current partnership.

Defence is the second major pillar, with Russia continuing to supply and service most of India’s frontline platforms, including fighter jets, submarines, tanks and air defence systems. Talks during the visit will cover maintenance support and future acquisitions, he said.

The two countries may formalise a new payment framework using the dirham or explore integrating Russia’s SPFS system with India’s RuPay network, he added.

After Russia was partially removed from SWIFT, payments shifted to a multi-currency mechanism using the UAE’s dirham (60–65 per cent), the rupee (25–30 per cent) and the Chinese yuan (5–10 per cent).

India’s merchandise trade with Russia remains heavily imbalanced, with modest export growth overshadowed by high energy-driven imports.

Exports rose from USD 4.3 billion in FY24 to USD 4.9 billion in FY25, with shipments of USD 2.25 billion in April–September 2025. The export basket remains narrow and concentrated in machinery (USD 367.8 million), pharmaceuticals (USD 246 million) and organic chemicals (USD 165.8 million) in the first half of FY26.

Consumer-oriented categories continue to be marginal: smartphones (USD 75.9 million), Vannamei shrimp (USD 75.7 million), meat (USD 63 million) and garments at USD 20.94 million. These figures highlight India’s limited penetration in Russia’s retail markets and electronics value chains despite geopolitical shifts, GTRI said.

On the import side, dependence on Russian energy and commodities remains strong.

India’s imports were USD 63.2 billion in FY24 and edged up to USD 63.8 billion in FY25. In April–September 2025 alone, imports stood at USD 31.2 billion.

Petroleum dominates the basket — crude oil (USD 23.1 billion) and petroleum products (USD 2.5 billion) — followed by coal (USD 1.9 billion). Strategic inputs such as fertilisers (USD 1.3 billion) and food oils, including sunflower seed oil (USD 633 million), remain significant, while diamonds (USD 202 million) add to the non-energy bill.

“The result is a structurally asymmetric relationship as India relies on Russia for energy security and inputs, while struggling to scale value-added exports, leaving the bilateral trade equation lopsided and vulnerable to shocks in global commodity prices,” GTRI added.

(With inputs from agencies)